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Cashing In On The Commodities Boom
By Tan Wei Zhe
In 1826, the British political economist and demographer Thomas Malthus published the final edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population. He proposed that the human population if left to its own devices would grow exponentially and surpass food production at the current levels of that era. Today in 2008, companies with commodity-related businesses reap impressive rewards from the soaring food and commodities prices across the world.

Companies like Olam International Limited, a global supply chain manager of agricultural products and food ingredients, saw second quarter net profits rise by 25.4 per cent year–on–year fueled by contributions from its Cocoa, Coffee, Cashew, Sheanuts, Sesame, Rice and Teak Wood. The company is also engaged in an expansion drive making several regional acquisitions and international joint ventures in cotton in Australia and integrated palm oil, rubber and sugar assets in Africa over the 2007 period. Similarly, Noble Group Limited, a Hong Kong–based global supply chain manager of agricultural, metals, minerals and ores, and energy products saw net profit for its fourth quarter grow by 92 per cent compared to the same period in 2006 in light of “robust performance across Noble’s businesses” as quoted by Chairman David Eldon.

According to Jim Rogers an investment expert and co–founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, he advises investors to go into commodities. “Commodities (prices) are going to go higher because supply and demand are out of balance,” said Rogers. He justifies his statement by explaining that 30 years ago Asia was not a major player in the global economy unlike now with the two largest emerging markets of India and China churning out an astounding number of items and services for export while creating more demand for commodities, soft, energy and otherwise.

It is no secret that economic giants India and China have seen double digit or close to double digit real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the past few years. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s real GDP for 2008 is projected to grow by 10.0 per cent as of February 15, 2008. India’s projected real GDP for 2008 is also expected to grow by 8.4 per cent.

The burgeoning economies and their increasingly affluent populations have created a surge in demand especially for food–related soft commodities since people with more disposable income will want to improve the quality of food that they consume, to lead the proverbial good life, so to speak. In Forbes The World’s Billionaires rankings for 2008, 42 of them were from China and 53 from India out of a list of 1,125.

Leading the good life often means ‘upgrading’ from a diet of primarily vegetables and rice or bread staples to one which includes more meat be it fish, chicken, pork, beef, milk and other higher–end foods such as confectionaries. Statistics from official sources revealed at Xinhua News Agency’s online portal saw the price of meats such as pork and beef had skyrocketed by 43 per cent and 46 per cent in January compared with the same period in 2007.

Statistics taken from the International Monetary Fund in the actual market prices for Non–Fuel and Fuel Commodities between the 2005–February 2008 periods show that the price of wheat has gone from US$152 per Metric Tonne (MT) to US$425 per MT. Rice prices have increased from US$288 per MT to US$481 per MT. Beef as a most significant indicator of affluence and wealth increased from 119 UScents (cts) per pound (llb) to 128 UScts per llb.



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